SMM Summit: Which Base Metal Carries the Greatest Upside Momentum in 2022? – SMM – Shanghai Metals Market
SHANGHAI, Dec 14 (SMM) – Deputy General Manager of Jiangxi Copper (Shenzhen) International Investment Holdings Limited: Personally, I don't think there is any specific base metal that will outperform the others next year. If we look at the long term, in the next few years, I would expect the new energy-related metals to perform more excitingly, while traditional infrastructure-related metals will probably lag behind. Based on this logic, the performance of metals such as silver, nickel and tin in previous years may be better by comparison, while the performance of metals such as lead, zinc and copper next year will largely depend on the supply side disruptions.
Deputy General Manager of China Copper International Trading Group Limited: For the development of next year's metal market, I will talk about our company’s leading product – copper. Firstly, copper market is a tightly balanced; secondly, copper consumption is not that pessimistic, and there may even be small surprises, with overseas consumption also performing reasonably well; thirdly, logistics problems could not be easily resolved in a short period of time; fourthly, the overall inventory of copper is relatively low; fifthly, there are more unknown disturbing forces on the supply side.
Therefore, I personally believe that copper will continue to perform well in the next year. However, its prices may be affected by financial policies next year, with some downward possibilities. From a long-term perspective, copper is still at a good stage. We expect that when the time comes to an electrification-driven economy, the future copper prices will move up again from the broad range of US$3,000-$8,000/mt, perhaps marking a new starting point.
Deputy General Manager of CSIC Materials Trading Group Guangzhou Co.: I personally prefer copper. The next year's supply disturbance will be relatively great in the copper market, and the current inventory is also low. And from the perspective of speculation, there are many structural opportunities for copper next year. And the price volatility should also be greater next year the least, with higher absolute price risks. I think the structural moves may be more suitable to go for trading.
Deputy President of Foshan Nanhai Yucheng Metals Investment Co., Ltd Group: I think that in terms of absolute price fluctuations and premiums, copper and aluminium will have more opportunities next year, while lead and zinc will probably perform similarly to this year, and perhaps more stable next year.
Deputy General Manager of Chalco Foshan International Trade Co., Ltd: I personally am more optimistic about aluminium. In the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" background, before there is a stable clean energy to replace coal power, the issues of aluminium production capacity ceiling and energy consumption ceiling will not see a way out. On the supply side, aluminium output is difficult to see great improvement. While in terms of consumption, whether it is aluminium to replace copper or to substitute steel with aluminium, the overall aluminium market is still very extensive. In other words, I am still more optimistic about aluminium in this scenario.
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